Iraq’s sixth parliamentary elections since 2003 will take place on 11 November in a closed political landscape, where competition unfolds largely within the ruling establishment itself following the withdrawal of the Sadrist movement. The Sainte-Laguë law, reinstated in its older form, restored dominance to major blocs and effectively excluded independent candidates through the vote-counting process — turning the elections into a race among parties financing their campaigns with state resources.
More than 7,700 candidates are running, yet only 76 are independent with no political affiliation, leaving little suspense about the outcome. The key variable is Mohammed Shiaʿ al-Sudani, who seized the leadership vacuum within the Shia forces as an opportunity to rise.
He enters the elections not only as prime minister but as a contender for control over the political order itself, investing state resources in public projects and signing agreements with Turkey linking oil to water — a move read by rivals as a bid for regional backing to consolidate power after the vote.
Voter turnout is projected at under 40 percent, reflecting deep public frustration with elections that rarely shift the balance of power. The likely result is a fragmented parliament and pragmatic coalitions shaped by overlapping Iranian, US American, Turkish, and growing Gulf influence from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
These elections may not transform the face of power in Iraq, but they could redefine how it is shared among its players.
This issue on our monthly newsletter takes us deep into Iraq’s electoral season — a contest marked less by democratic renewal than by vengeance, fatigue, and fragile hope.
As campaigns unfold ahead of the November 2025 vote, Jummar explores how Iraqis navigate their choices between boycott, participation, and hesitation, and how this election has become a “revenge ballot” through which the Coordination Framework seeks to reclaim what it lost in 2021.
Our coverage also follows the exclusion of women from political decision-making, the fragmentation of Shia alliances once united under a single banner, and the rise of Generation Z voters whose numbers may quietly reshape Iraq’s political landscape.
Beyond the ballot box, the lines between politics and survival blur: millions are spent on ads while candidates trade food and water for votes, the streets are buried under campaign posters, and lawsuits challenge the participation of parties linked to armed factions.
Together, these stories chart a country caught between ballots and bargains — between the promises of democracy and the disillusionment of its people.
